By Prof. Karuti Kanyinga
Adapted from an article first published by the Daily Nation
The recent protests and unrest in Kenya may give the impression that the country is experiencing a political crisis. Some political leaders have even gone so far as to call for international mediation, likening the current situation to the 2007–08 post-election crisis that led to Kofi Annan’s intervention.
However, there is no political crisis warranting such international attention. What we are witnessing is the expression of competing elite and personal interests by leaders across the political spectrum. Kenya is not in the grip of a political breakdown. Rather, the country is facing significant economic challenges—challenges that have not (yet) escalated into a political crisis or spiraled beyond control.
Persistent Economic Struggles
Issues such as the high cost of living and rising youth unemployment are not new. For nearly two decades, these have remained the most pressing concerns for Kenyan households. Evidence from various economic surveys confirms this. For instance, as far back as 2003, unemployment was cited by Kenyans as the top national concern, while economic management ranked lower.
This period coincided with President Mwai Kibaki’s first term, during which he prioritised economic reforms. Under his leadership, the government reduced its dependence on foreign aid to under 10% of the budget, improved governance, and stimulated growth. These reforms led to a drop in unemployment, as economic activity increased and jobs naturally followed.
However, the situation shifted after the 2007–08 post-election violence, which significantly disrupted the economy. Inflation spiked to double digits—hovering around 12%—and economic management surged to the top of public concern.
Yet despite the political volatility of that period, economic challenges remained the consistent issue for most Kenyans. Over the past 15 years, successive surveys have confirmed that public concerns are dominated by the economy, unemployment, food security, and the cost of living.
Politics: Not a Priority Concern
Interestingly, political instability has never ranked high among the issues Kenyans want resolved. While concerns like corruption and leadership quality surface occasionally, they do not consistently rank among the top priorities.
That said, public trust in political institutions has steadily declined. In 2003, about 70% of Kenyans trusted President Kibaki. By the time he left office in 2012, that number had dropped to 61%. In 2014, 72% of Kenyans expressed trust in President Uhuru Kenyatta, but by 2021, this had fallen to 52%.
Trust in Parliament and other elected leaders tends to be even lower, consistently ranking below trust in religious institutions, community leaders, and even the media. Still, among elected officials, the President and governors enjoy relatively higher levels of public confidence—though usually below the 50% mark.
This erosion of trust has left the political elite in a constant state of agitation. Many feel the need to remain visible and relevant between election cycles or risk fading from public consciousness.
Electoral Defeat and Narrative Building
Elections in Kenya inevitably produce winners and losers, both at national and county levels. While some unsuccessful candidates retreat and regroup for future contests, others actively undermine incumbents by spreading misinformation about their performance, especially at the grassroots level.
At the national level, the dynamics are even more complex. Presidential election losers often turn to the Supreme Court, but even after a court ruling, some continue to mobilise their base through narratives of electoral injustice. These narratives, regardless of their factual basis, serve a political function: maintaining loyalty among supporters and preparing the ground for future elite negotiations.
Indeed, this tendency to frame every post-election dispute as a “stolen election” has become a political tactic. While past elections—such as the 2007 contest—were marred by clear and reckless manipulation, today’s narratives are often inflated, and in some cases, even fabricated, to suit political ends.
Elite Pacts, Not National Crises
Much of what is often labelled as a “political crisis” is, in fact, elite disagreement. These disputes rarely reflect widespread national instability. Instead, they represent a struggle among political actors to retain influence, secure future positions, or renegotiate elite pacts. These shifting alliances are a normal part of Kenya’s political landscape.
Eventually, consensus among the elite is reached—through negotiations, compromises, and power-sharing arrangements. When that happens, tensions subside. Calm returns not because the public outcry has been fully addressed, but because elite interests have been temporarily aligned.
Kenya is not in the midst of a political crisis. The real crisis lies in the economy—in unemployment, food insecurity, and the rising cost of living. These are the issues that affect the daily lives of citizens, and they should be the focus of national attention.
Political disputes, however dramatic, are often the noise of elite competition—not signs of state failure. Kenya’s political system has its flaws, but it is functional. What is urgently needed is a renewed focus on economic reform and inclusive development, not international mediation.
About the Author
Prof. Karuti Kanyinga is a Research Professor at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi. He is a distinguished scholar in governance, development, and public policy, with extensive research on political participation and electoral processes in Kenya.